Russian audience of the Internet in 2003 increased by 40 %. Meanwhile by the end of the year weekly 5 % of Russians over 16 used the Internet (by 1.5 m more than at the end of 2002), and once a month the Internet is visited by about 10 % of Russians. Experts of analytical company J'son & Partners forecast 35–40 % growth of Internet audience in 2004 – by the end of the year monthly Russian Internet  audience should reach 15 m people.

In accordance with J'son & Partners estimates, by the end of 2003 Russian Internet audience amounted to 11.6 m users per month and 5.9 m users per week. The number of dialup access subscribers (dialup services or Internet access via telephone lines) increased by 800 000 people, to 3.2 m users per week. This type of access is used by 55 % of Runet’s weekly audience, however, they account only for 40 % of web traffic, since activity of dedicated wide-band access users (in terms on the number of web-pages looked through per week) is by 1.8 times higher. The share of dedicated wide-band access makes for 45 % of weekly audience (2.7 m users) and 60 % of web traffic.

At its annual Board last week the Ministry of Communications presented a bit higher figures (due to using another calculation method). In accordance with the Ministry’s information, in 2003 the number of Internet users in Russia increased approximately by one and a half time, reaching 14 m people, and Internet traffic growth in one year exceeded 180 %. The Ministry expects exponential growth of user numbers in the future.

Market experts agree with it. ”Internet development in a certain way reminds a chain reaction in a nuclear reactor”, says IK FINAM analyst Oleg Shenker. “Until Internet audience reaches certain critical mass, this “reaction” flows sluggishly. But when a certain border-line is crossed and the serves becomes really mass one both in terms of price and the resource content, the market really booms”.

J'son & Partners forecasts that the number of dialup users will increase in 2004 by one million people because main growth of Internet audience will move to the regions. However, the share of dedicated access will increase from today’s 45 % to 48 % by the end of the year.

The share of Moscow and Moscow region in Russian weekly Internet audience, as of February 2004 is estimated to make 37 %, and Saint-Petersburg together with Leningrad region – 10 %. Among other regions, in terms of user number leaders are  Sverdlovsk and Novosibirsk regions, but even their shares do not exceed  3 % of all Russian Internet audience. In terms of penetration, apart from Moscow and Saint-Petersburg, leaders are Tomsk and Novosibirsk regions, as well as Primorsky region with penetration level of about  7–8 %.

In the opinion of J'son & Partners consultant Boris Ovchinnikov, by the beginning of 2005 Moscow may reach 20 % level of penetration (in terms of weekly audience index), whereas the majority of the regions will be at the 5 % level.

The share of telephone line access in Moscow is 36 %, and in certain regions it achieves 75 % (average for the whole Russia is 55 %, and in Russia outside Moscow and Saint-Petersburg – 67 %). And the market is quite concentrated – over 50 % of dialup access market is controlled by 10 biggest operators, of which seven are companies from ”Svyazinvest” holding.

In terms of number of users the only peers to ”Svyazinvest” companies are all-Russia Golden Telecom, Moscow ”MTU-Intel” and Petersburg ”WebPlus”. Totally, through its companies “Svyazinvest” holding controls about 28 % of the Russian dialup access market (excluding Moscow and Saint-Petersburg – 39 %).

According to ”MTU-Intel” Deputy General Director for commercial activities Nikolay Zakharov,  today 20 % of Moscow flats are connected to the Internet, with wide-band share still small – about 3.5 % flats are connected through dedicated line. However, he believes that by the end of 2005 the 10 % barrier could be overcome.

According to ”MTU-Intel” information, today in Moscow 80 % of private Internet users employ dialup and only 20 % – dedicated lines. By the end of the year the percentage of dedicated users may increase to 25 %. ”In the future the number of new connections among private users via dialup and dedicated line will be the same”, adds Zakharov.

In accordance with the estimates by head of dialup department of “Karavan” telecommunication company Vladimir Savin, the increment of Moscow dialup users in 2003 was about 30 % and this year this tendency will remain. And he believes that the actual number of Muscovites regularly using the Internet is much higher than the one stated in the study by J'son & Partners, since one point of access is normally used by more than one person. ”If we consider that, for instance, a company office is one point, then the figure of 20 % is quite clear”, adds he.

Source: Vedomosti, 10.03.2004